[爆卦] 經濟學人分析師: 立院沒過半 兆元軍費難產

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美國媒體 CNBC Squawk Box Asia的節目主持人Martin Soong &Chery Kang

專訪經濟學人智庫(EIU)首席分析師 Nick Marro

逐字稿從10:32開始

主持人: Let's get to a more conventional shield. The military shield about

like you're in town now saying it was to spend $40 billion extra on on defense

And I want to ask you right because I mean, Taiwan has had a reputation. It's

not that they don't spend money on defense. They do right, but they kind of

buy the kind of stuff which is nice and shiny and looks good on parade and may

not necessarily good for actually defending the island. Do you get a sense

that that is starting to change because of influence? I mean, there are a ton

of activists in D. C. We're more than happy to help Taiwan arm up more.

我們來談一個比較「傳統」的防護罩，也就是軍事防護罩。現在賴清德說，想要在現有基

礎上再多編 400 億美元的國防預算。我想直接問你，因為台灣過去一直有個名聲，不是

他們不花錢在國防上喔，他們確實有花，但他們買的都是那種看起來很漂亮、很閃亮，

很適合拿來閱兵，但不一定真的對防衛台灣島有用的東西。你覺得這樣的情況現在有開始

改變嗎？是不是因為美國華府那邊有一票人士，很樂意幫台灣「武裝升級」的關係？

Nick: Yeah, That's right. I mean, the focus, particularly from people in D. C

is to encourage Taiwan to lean into this asymmetric kind of weaponry strategy.

This idea that you have this porcupine kind of tactic that you're trying to

resist and assaults from China for enough time, so that that's a way that

Americans can get involved in any theater of conflict. I think from a pure

geo strategic perspective that that probably makes the most sense. There's no

real way that you know Taiwan could kind of match China in terms of military

parity, and so making sure that they're able to kind of resist any kind of

assault for as long as it takes for, say, the Americans or any American allies

to get involved. That's really going to be a key part of the strategy.

沒錯 特別是來自華府那些人的重點，就是鼓勵台灣更投入「非對稱作戰」的武器與戰略

也就是所謂的「豪豬戰略」，想辦法在中國發動進攻的時候，把成本拉高、拖時間、撐得

夠久，讓美軍有機會介入這個戰區。從純地緣戰略的角度來看，這大概是最合理的方向。

因為台灣幾乎不可能在軍力上跟中國達到對等，所以較務實的做法，是確保自己有能力在

遭到攻擊時，撐到美軍或美國盟友能夠介入為止。這會是整體戰略裡非常關鍵的一環。

(這裡Nick把2026國防預算9500億台幣和新增的400億美元/1.25兆台幣講反了)

To think about Lai Ching-te's budget though, It's interesting because his

defense budget for next year already, I think, proposed, you know, a 1.25

trillion increase in expenditure. And so this 40 billion U.S dollar additional

budget, which is around, I think, 950 billion Taiwanese dollars that that is

coming on top of an already very aggressive planned expenditure and Lai Ching-

te has talked about raising Taiwanese defense spending to 3% of GDP. I think

he's done this partially in the context of making U.S trade negotiator happy.

We know that Donald Trump is very focused on defense spending and the avoidance

of free riding by allies.

如果回過頭看賴清德的國防預算，其實很有意思。他明年的國防預算本來就已經規劃要再

增加大約 9500億台幣的支出。現在這個額外增加的 400 億美元，大概是1.25兆

新台幣左右，是疊加在原本就已經很積極的支出計畫之上。賴清德也談過，要把台灣的

國防支出拉高到 GDP 的 3%。我認為他在某種程度上，是希望藉此讓美方談判代表滿意，

因為我們知道川普非常在意盟友「國防支出不夠、搭美國便車」這件事。

The big question in the room, however, is that he does not control the

legislature. His party lost its dominance of the Legislative Yuan in the Jan

2024 elections. And we know that the opposition KMT and the TPP are very

skeptical of higher expenditure in general, but particularly defense

expenditure, given the KMT is kind of sympathies with China. What that means

is that even though we are seeing a lot of rhetoric coming out, it doesn't

necessarily mean that the president is going able to actually execute or

implement this agenda. And so as this budget kind of traverses its way through

the parliament, it's going to be really interesting to watch to see whether

Lai Ching-te is able to get the opposition on board.

但最大的問題是：他並不掌控立法機關。他的政黨在2024年1月的立委選舉中，已經失去

了對立法院的主導權。我們也知道，在野的國民黨和台灣民眾黨，對於政府擴張支出向來

很保留，對國防支出更是如此，特別是考量到國民黨在兩岸上對中國相對友善的立場。

這代表，即便現在看起來有很多很強硬、很大聲的政策宣示，也不代表總統真的有辦法把

這些國防預算全部落實、執行下去。當這份預算案接下來進入立法院審查時，要觀察的是

賴清德能不能說服在野黨一起支持。

I think based on what we've seen over the past couple of years, it looks like

a pretty pessimistic prognosis, but this is going to be a very interesting

thing to look at as we head into 2026.

就我這幾年看到的情況來看，前景其實偏悲觀。不過，這會是接下來往 2026 年發展過

程中，非常值得關注的一件事。

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